A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
